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Scientist from the Wissenschaftler of Münster have analysed the statistics of the German Bundesliga thoroughly and could characterise a football match as a Poisson-Process and like that made football results calculable. The crucial finding of the scientists is that goals in football are a product of coincidence. Goals, however, aren’t a sole game of dice but are i♒nfluenced by the technical abilities of the players, the so called performance level, of both teams.
In the Bundesliga a typical outcome of match is determined of coi♌ncidence by 86%. 14% are no coincidence and distinct a top team from a potential relegation team.
Stunning: All tea🏅ms in the Bundesliga have about the same conversion of chances.
Home teams score more goals on avera🅠ge. Average 1,66 home and 1,20 away goals. There is an overall home advantage but no evidence that in addition to that teams perform especially well at home. Thus,🐈 home strength is a myth.
Typically 3 goals are scored in a match. To be p꧂recise, the number of g﷽oals has decreased over time and now amounts to 2,8.
Rathe🤡r not. 46 % of all wins are based upon a one-goal-margin.
No. On🍷ly about 25% of matches result ins draw. By implicatio🧔n 75% of matches have a winner!
Yes, but since the middle of the 80s, the number of away win🐼s is constantly getting bigger. While during the 70s distinctively more than 20% of matches resulted ins away win, that figure already amounted to 33% in the season of 2010/2011.
Extraordinary: On the last two match day🎐s about 20% more goals are scored than on average. So: Bet on high🍸er results!
The goal differente of past matches is𓃲 especially informative for the purpose of predictions. It is significantly more informative than the number of points. The expected amount of goals, on the other hand, is quite similar among all teams.
Goalscoring opportunities are a lot more informative for the sake of prognosis. Good teams show a slightly better conversi♛on.
The market value of a team as determined before the start of the season is extremely strongly correlated with their actual performance. Rule of thumb: Doubling of the market value = 10 additional po𒁏ints or a goal difference increased by 16 goals.
A seasoꦑn-specific average Performance level of a team does exist. (Performance level = goal differencꦦe that a team scores against an average opponent)
The cꦓoincidence averages out during the course of the season. The longer the season has already progressed, the more reliable goals and opportunities display the performances of teams.
A football match is dominated by effects of coincidence. A🦂dditionally the performance level of offense and defen𒅌se are correlated.
Without effects of coincidence, the difference of goalscoring opportunities would perfectly predict the performance level🗹.
The goal difference is determined by effects of coincidence with 86% (match day) or 29% (season) on av💝eཧrage.
Fluctuations of performance levels from match day to match day are, therefore, not statistically releva🔯nt. The changes of perf🍬ormances levels take place during the summer break and only rare
There are no positive series. The concepﷺt of a “streak“ is, thus, void. Unfortunately this does not apply for negative series - those do exist. As Andi Brehme famously put it: “When you got shit on your foot, you got shit on your foot!&ld༺quo;
In the context of statistical preciseness, the conversion of effe🅠ctive goalscoring opportunities is identical for all teams. For that reason the goalscoring opportunities are quite significant for the pred𝓡iction of goals.
The performance of promoted teams is asto🅺nishingly well predetermined. Significant deviations from the lower half of the table (goal difference: -13 +/- 8) are, thus, extremely rare. For that reason a „march through“ is very special.
With the help of the market value and the effective differente of goalscoring opportunities you🍨 can come closer to the perfect prediction of the second half of the season..
No. In fact only in half of the cases 𝔍the best team wins and becomes German champion at the end of the season.
No. Statistically, there are no bogey team. The s👍cientist’s search for bogey teams was negative. Looking at it statistically the effect is under 10%.
Of course we know! But🐻 it is enough for today, we will let you know another rime.